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AFTER THE MOVIES: Picking the winners on Hollywood's Golden night

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which votes on the Golden Globes, can be notoriously hard to predict. In most years, the Oscar race gets a shakeup because of an upset happening on Globes night. Last year, for example, Isabelle Huppert took the award for Best Actress in a Drama, despite many predicting the Globe going to Natalie Portman for "Jackie."

Still, as always, I'm going to throw my hat in the ring and try to guess who the HFPA is giving their awards to tonight.

Best Motion Picture Drama

• Dunkirk

• The Post

• The Shape of Water

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

• Call me by Your Name

This category is loaded with good films, with all of them having a solid chance to win the award. With "The Shape of Water" picking up a lot of buzz this season, though, combined with the fact that it got Globe nominations in seven categories, it seems like a safe bet to win. It wouldn't surprise me if "Dunkirk," "The Post" or "Call me by Your Name" manage to snag the award, but at this point I'm sticking with "Shape."

Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

• Lady Bird

• I, Tonya

• The Greatest Showman

• Get Out

• The Disaster Artist

This category is basically a race of two, coming down to "Lady Bird" vs. "Get Out." "Get Out" is a film with strong social commentary and it was really well received at the Gotham Film Awards. Still, "Lady Bird" has had its own share of buzz, as it is one of the top films of the year, and it has a legitimate chance at taking the Globe. So, "Lady Bird" is my pick.

Best Actress, Drama

• Jessica Chastain - Molly's Game

• Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water

• Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

• Meryl Streep - The Post

• Michelle Williams - All the Money in the World

Another race of two, this time between Hawkins and McDormand. While McDormand gave a great performance in "Three Billboards," though, Hawkins will likely garner more votes for her portraying the silent character in "Shape of Water." As a result, I'm siding with Hawkins.

Best Actor, Drama

• Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

• Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel

• Tom Hanks - The Post

• Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread

• Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name

Since basically the trailer dropped, Gary Oldman has been the frontrunner for all Best Actor awards for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in "Darkest Hour." From my view, that's still the case. It is fair to say he has a lot of competition, facing two great actors in Day-Lewis and Hanks as well as Chalamet who gave a brilliant performance in "Call Me By Your Name." Still, until otherwise, Oldman has this.

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical

• Saorise Ronan - Lady Bird

• Margot Robbie - I, Tonya

• Emma Stone - Battle of the Sexes

• Helen Mirren - The Leisure Seeker

• Judi Dench - Victoria & Abdul

This one is a little bit easier to predict. While Robbie has earned praise for her role in "I, Tonya," Ronan has received even more buzz for her performance in "Lady Bird." All things considered, Ronan should take the Globe.

Actor Musical/Comedy

• James Franco - The Disaster Artist

• Hugh Jackman - The Greatest Showman

• Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out

• Ansel Elgort - Baby Driver

• Steve Carell - Battle of the Sexes

Because the Globes split categories between musical/comedy and drama, it allows for more people to have a shot at getting an award. This year, that person is James Franco. Out of all the award ceremonies this year, this is Franco's best opportunity to win a trophy. When looking at the competition and noting the praise of Franco's performance, he will likely earn this one.

Best Supporting Actress

• Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

• Allison Janney - I, Tonya

• Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

• Mary J. Blige - Mudbound

• Hong Chau - Downsizing

Like the Actress for Musical/Comedy award, this category will be "Lady Bird" against "I, Tonya." Both Janney and Metcalf have earned praise this season, but from what I can tell Metcalf has an edge at the moment. With that in mind, Metcalf should earn the Globe.

Best Supporting Actor

• Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

• Armie Hammer - Call me by Your Name

• Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water

• Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World

• Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is another stacked category filled with great performances. Rockwell was key in "Three Billboards," Plummer stole the show in "All the Money" and Hammer was integral to "Call Me By Your Name." Still, Dafoe has been the frontrunner for supporting in general for some time now and that won't change here.

Best Director

• Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water

• Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk

• Ridley Scott - All the Money in the World

• Steven Spielberg - The Post

• Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I can see this coming down to either del Toro or Nolan, as each of them have delivered significant pictures in 2017. Considering the number of nominations and the love for del Toro's visionary style, though, I can see him taking this award.

Best Screenplay

• Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor - The Shape of Water

• Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird

• Liz Hannah and Josh Singer - The Post

• Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

• Aaron Sorkin - Molly's Game

I'm never one to count out Sorkin in a screenplay race and McDonagh had something special with "Three Billboards." However, the emotional, raw script for "Lady Bird" has been so well received over the last month that it's my pick to win.

Best Animated

• The Breadwinner

• Coco

• Ferdinand

• Loving Vincent

• The Boss Baby

Artistic indies like "The Breadwinner" and "Loving Vincent" could pick up some votes here but I still feel that "Coco" is the safe bet this time.

Best Foreign Language

• First They Killed My Father

• Loveless

• The Square

• In the Fade

• A Fantastic Woman

When reviewing all the buzz around this category, it looks like the Globe could either go toward "First they Killed My Father" or "The Square." As it seems a bit of a toss-up, I'll just go with "First They Killed My Father."

Best Original Score

• Alexandre Desplat - The Shape of Water

• Johnny Greenwood - Phantom Thread

• John Williams - The Post

• Hans Zimmer - Dunkirk

• Carter Burwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Zimmer and Williams can never be underestimated in this category, but the intimate score in "The Shape of Water" really helped complete things. With that in mind, I'm picking Desplat.

Best Original Song

• This Is Me - The Greatest Showman

• Remember Me - Coco

• Mighty River - Mudbound

• The Star - The Star

• Home — Ferdinand

The emotional song "Remember Me" from "Coco" is a safe bet for this one.

The Golden Globe awards start at 7 tonight on NBC with Seth Meyers as host.

Matthew Liedke is a news reporter for the Bemidji Pioneer and a film critic for AreaVoices. More thoughts on the film industry and movie reviews can be found at http://matthewliedke.areavoices.com/.

Matthew Liedke

Matthew Liedke is the city, county and state government reporter for the Bemidji Pioneer. He also covers business, politics and financial news.

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